Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
